Course Information and Requirements

Course Professor

Associate Professor Poh Kim Leng, Ph.D.
Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering
National University of Singapore

Phone: 6516 2193
Email: isepohkl@nus.edu.sg
Office: E1A-06-10

Teaching Assistants

Ms Fan Liwei
Email: g0600308@nus.edu.sg
Office: SMALab (E1A-05-19)
Phone: 6516 4573

Ms Hu Junfei
Email: g0800220@nus.edu.sg
Office: SMALab (E1A-05-19)
Phone: 6516 4573

The Teaching Team: Hu Junfei, Poh Kim Leng and Fan Liwei

Course Descriptions

IE5203 (4 MC): This module teaches the necessary analytical knowledge and practical skills for improving decision-making processes in engineering and business environments. This is achieved by providing a paradigm based on normative decision theory and a set of prescriptive tools and computational techniques using state-of-the art software with which a stake holder can systematically analyze a complex and uncertain decision situation leading to clarity of action. Topics from utility theory and influence diagrams modeling to multi-attribute utility theory and analytic hierarchy process are covered.

Course Outline

Introduction
Uncertainty
Decision Theory
Basic Decision Analysis
Sensivity Analysis
Value of Information Analysis
Stochastic Dominance Analysis
Bayesian Networks
Influence Diagrams
Risk and Time Preferences
Assessment of Probabilities
The Decision Analysis Cycle
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Value-Focused Thinking
Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis
Software: Excel, Treeplan, Sensit, Netica, DPL and Expert Choice.

For Whom?

IE5203 provides partial fullfilment towards the following degrees as elective module:
1. M.Sc. (Industrial & Systems Engineering)
2. M.Sc. (Transportation Systems & Management)
3. M.Sc. (Management of Technology)
4. M.Sc. (Systems Design & Management)
5. M.Sc. (Logistics and Supply Chain Management)
6. B.Eng. (Industrial & Systems Engineering) (for senior-year students only).
7. Other graduate degree programs as free elective as approved. Graduate students who have prevously taken this module include those from the Departments of Computer Science, Information Systems, Singapore MIT Alliance (CE and AMM&NS), Electrical & Computer Engineering, Civil Engineering, Chemeical & Biomolecular Engineering, Material Science & Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Building Science, Applied Physics, Applied Economics, etc.
IE5203 may be taken by University Scholars as a ride-on for their Independent Study Module. They will do a special term paper instead of the regular term paper for this module.
IE5203 may be taken by professionals from the industry with relevant background in basic probabilities and statistics to enhance their analytical decision making skills or for personal enrichment. They may enrol as special non-examination students through Professional Activities Centre. For more information, please click here.

Course Requirements

Term Paper

An application term paper is required for IE5203. Students will work individually on a reasonably realistic decision problem either from their professional work or personal life using the decision analysis techniques and software learned in this course. (More about the application term paper)

Homeworks

Homework exercises are given at the end of each chapter in the lecture notes. They will not be graded. You are required to attempt them as they will help you understand the class materials better. Solutions to selected questions will be discussed in class. All solutions will be posted on the website.

Final Grading

	Weight
Mid-Term	15%
Term Paper	35%
Final Examination (open book)	50%

Reading Materials

Required

K.L. Poh, IE5203 Lecture Notes, 2009 Edition.

References

	R.A. Howard and J.E. Matheson (Editors), Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Strategic Decision Group, Vol. I and II, 1983.
	T.L. Saaty, The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw Hill, New York, 1980 (RWS edition 1990).
	T.L. Saaty, Decision Making for Leaders: The analytic hierarchy process for decision in a complex world. Revised edition. RWS publications, 1995.
	C.W. Kirkwood, Strategic Decision Making: multiobjective decsion analysis with spreadsheets, Duxbury, 1997.
	K.B. Korb and A.E. Nicholson, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Chapman & Hall, 2004.
	Applied Decision Analyis LLC, DPL 4.0: Professional Decision Analysis Software - Academic Edition, Duxbury, 1998.