In this talk, we present an overview of the four maritime risk modeling analysis efforts undertaken by a team of analysts from the George Washington University, Virginia Commonwealth University and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. We present the modeling details which involves the use of probability models, simulation and the use of expert opinion to construct a risk profile for the maritime system. We next discuss how the risk mitigation suggestions were modeled and how the presentation of results was used to convey the conclusions to the clients. We conclude with some general conclusions about our analyses.

Dr. Thomas Mazzuchi received a B.A. (1978) in Mathematics from Gettysburg College, Gettysburg, PA, a M.S. (1979) and a D.Sc. (1982), both in Operations Research from the George Washington University, Washington DC. Currently, he is a Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering in the School of Engineering and Applied Science at the George Washington University, Washington, D.C. He is also the Chair of the Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at the George Washington University where he has served as the Chair of the Operations Research Department and as Interim Dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science.

Dr. Mazzuchi has been engaged in consulting and research in the area of reliability and risk analysis for over twenty years. He served for two and a half years as a research mathematician at the international operations and process research laboratory of the Royal Dutch Shell Company. While at Shell, Dr. Mazzuchi was involved with reliability and risk analysis of large processing systems, maintenance optimization of off-shore platforms, and quality control procedures at large scale chemical plants. During his academic career, he has held research contracts in development of testing procedures for both the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Army, in spares provisioning modeling with the U. S. Postal Service, in mission assurance with NASA, and in maritime safety and risk assessment with the Port Authority of New Orleans, the Washington Office of Marine Safety, Washington State Department of Transportation, and the San Francisco Bay Area Transit Authority.

Dr. Mazzuchi’s current research interests include reliability growth assessment, software reliability modeling, design and inference in life testing, reliability estimation as a function of operating environment, maintenance inspection policies, and incorporation of expert judgment into reliability and risk analysis.